TPP News from Crista Huff — August 16, 2016

by Crista Huff (amended 08-17-16)

 

CONTINUED MEDIA BLACKOUT ON THE WHEREABOUTS OF USTR MICHAEL FROMAN — On August 1, 2016, Inside U.S. Trade published a four-sentence article announcing that U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman had a “bike accident”, and that Assistant USTR for Southeast Asia and the Pacific Barbara Weisel would take his place during that week’s events and meetings. (See my article, “The TPP Ambassador’s “Accident”“, August 2, 2016.)

On August 16, 2016, Inside U.S. Trade reported, “Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Robert Holleyman is returning to Atlanta today, where the negotiations wrapped up last October, to participate in a roundtable about TPP hosted by the World Affairs Council of Atlanta.”

There continues to be no additional mention of Ambassador Froman on the internet, since the August 1 announcement. Where exactly is the Ambassador? Is he in a hospital? Is he alive? With four recent deaths of folks who were closely involved with headline political scandals, one can’t help but wonder whether the Ambassador met a similar fate.

Curiously, after many months of speculation on the timing of the TPP ratification vote — and merely eleven days after the announcement of the “bike accident” — the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative got the ball rolling on the TPP vote by sending a draft Statement of Administration Action (SAA) to Congress. (Scroll down to the subsequent SAA-related article.)

Was Ambassador Froman at odds with the President over the timing of the TPP vote? Did his sudden hiatus from his role as U.S. Trade Representative facilitate the draft SAA, and a potential lame duck vote?

 

PRELIMINARY TIMELINE FOR THE TPP RATIFICATION VOTE IN CONGRESS

  • 08-12-16 — The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) sent the draft Statement of Administration Action (SAA) for the TPP to Congress. The draft SAA describes how the future implementing legislation is expected to change or modify US law to comply with the TPP. Please note that on 05-08-16, the President said, “Critics warn that parts of this deal would undermine American regulation. They’re making this stuff up. This is just not true. No trade agreement is going to force us to change our laws.”

  • The USTR must submit three reports that detail the TPP’s impact on U.S. employment, labor rights in the U.S. and with FTA partners, and the environment.

  • Beginning thirty days after the draft SAA was submitted to Congress, the USTR can send a draft implementing bill to Congress, which is subject to Fast Track in that Congress cannot amend it and must vote it up or down within a period of time. U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman announced on June 20 that the Obama administration is drafting implementing legislation, in preparation for a TPP ratification vote during the lame duck session of Congress. 

 

The “implementing legislation” is the official

TPP vote that the world is awaiting.

 

CONGRESSIONAL OPPOSITION TO TPP GROWS — A variety of Congresspeople have recently stated that they will not cast a YES vote to ratify the current version of the TPP, oftentimes suggesting renegotiation of the trade agreement in order to fix its flaws.

The TPP will not be renegotiated. Many heads of state and trade ministers have publicly announced that they will not participate in renegotiation, oftentimes citing the great deal they received regarding the TPP’s time period of biologic patent exclusivity. This sentiment was emphasized in 2016 by Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Koichi Hagiuda, Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo, New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, Peruvian Minister for Foreign Trade and Tourism Magali Silva, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew. For the TPP to be renegotiated, all partner countries would be required to acquiesce.

When Congresspeople say things similar to, “I will not vote for the TPP in its current form, and I urge the President to renegotiate the trade agreement”, they do, of course, understand that there is no chance that it will be renegotiated. They are simply making diplomatic statements, so as to sound like team players to their constituents, and to Congressional leadership. But in reality, they are telling the world, “I’m a NO vote.”

 

HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES AMONG PROSPECTIVE TPP PARTNER COUNTRIES 

Background — I’ve previously discussed human rights abuses among TPP partner countries. Of note:

  • The Obama administration “decided to allow Brunei to remain in the TPP even after the country announced that it would begin stoning to death gays and single mothers under new sharia-based laws.” (Source: Public Citizen)

  • Malaysia dropped to Tier 3 status on the State Department’s Trafficking in Persons report in 2014, due to its abysmal track record in the area of slavery and human trafficking. Since then, research has revealed additional evidence of Malaysian slavery in the area of electronics manufacturing, and discoveries of mass graves in migrant trafficking camps.

  • Subsequently, after a July 8, 2015 Reuters report on plans to upgrade Malaysia to Tier 2 status, “160 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and 18 U.S. senators wrote to Secretary of State John Kerry, urging him to keep Malaysia on Tier 3. They said there was no justification for an upgrade and questioned whether the plan was motivated by a desire to keep the country in the TPP,” reported Reuters.

  • The annual State Department Trafficking in Persons report was released on July 27, 2015. Cynics expected Malaysia to be raised from Tier 3 status — the most egregious of the potential rankings — to accommodate its image as an acceptable TPP partner country, and they were correct. Malaysia is now ranked on the Tier 2 Watch List.

  • The TPP is a “docking” agreement. Additional countries may dock onto (i.e. “join”) the TPP, after it’s ratified, without Congress’ consent. China has been encouraged to join the TPP after its initial ratification, most notably by Hillary Clinton. John Kerry welcomed both Communist China and Russia to join the TPP. Docking countries could include enemies of the U.S.; even countries with which we are at war. Imagine being at war with a country, while also being required to allow their companies and countrymen to set up shop in the United States, and compete for Department of Defense contracts!

What’s new in 2016 — It appears that human rights abuses in China are so extreme, that TPP opponents’ objections to Brunei’s and Malaysia’s TPP participation may pale in comparison. In a lengthy, long-term, and well-researched report on organ donation in China, researchers have concluded that approximately 1.2 million organ donations have been harvested from involuntary donors in recent years; most likely political prisoners. Read more in “Report Reveals Vast State-Run Industry to Harvest Organs in China”, The Epoch Times, June 22, 2016.

I frequently tell audiences that I could speak for an hour on any one of twenty objections to the TPP. It does not matter very much that a particular industry (agriculture) might benefit from this trade agreement. What matters are the vast problems created by the TPP, and the relatively permanent damage they do to people, jobs, the economy and U.S. sovereignty. My mantra is “First, Do No Harm”. The abuse of human rights by current and potential TPP partner countries is enough reason, in and of itself, to vote NO on the TPP.

 

 

TTIP FLOUNDERING — E.U.-U.S. negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) are at an impasse, with the U.S. refusing to budge on a variety of items that are imperative to the E.U. Key players and heads of state not only do not foresee TTIP passing in 2016, but its ultimate passage is in serious jeopardy.

According to a German poll, just 17% of German voters and 15% of U.S. voters approve of TTIP, down from 55% and 53% approval in 2014, respectively. (Inside U.S. Trade, August 15, 2016)

 

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Crista Huff is a stock market expert and a conservative political activist. She works with End Global Governance and issues groups to defeat the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. Send questions and comments to research@goodfellowllc.com.

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