Progress on Free Trade Agreements Unlikely in First Half of 2017

Posted by on Jan 3, 2017 in Politics | 0 comments

by Crista Huff
(updated January 5, 2017)

 

TRUMP’S “PRO-TRADE” APPOINTEES

I’ve noticed that journalists frequently portray potential Trump appointees as “pro-trade” who are therefore supposedly misaligned with the Trump-Pence agenda. I am annoyed that the journalists make such deceiving and simplistic statements.

Americans are aware that Donald Trump opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. Political activists and Congresspeople are aware that opposition to the TPP was rooted in the trade agreement’s sovereignty giveaway, global courts, lack of resolution to currency manipulation problems, lowering of food & health safety standards, trade agreements’ history of job loss and trade deficits, human rights abuses on the part of TPP partner countries, and more. Aversion to the TPP did not stem from an anti-trade stance. It stemmed from egregious disregard of significant human, national, and economic problems within the TPP.

Therefore, it logically ensues that a person can be “pro-trade” while opposing a specific and very-flawed trade agreement. Curiously, other than occasional mentions of opposition to global courts, journalists remain remarkably silent on the aforementioned problems with the TPP, choosing instead to characterize opponents as fearful, misinformed and protectionist. That’s a red flag, telling you that the journalists have a biased agenda, because an unbiased journalist would naturally list the pros and cons of the TPP.

Trump’s pick for Commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, is expected to be a major player in setting the new trade agenda. Ross has a background as a banker, and as a private investor who restructures failing companies. In a November 30 CNBC interview, Ross discussed the need to negotiate better trade deals for the U.S. in order to increase our exports. “There’s sensible trade. And there’s dumb trade. We’ve been doing a lot of dumb trade, and that’s the part that’s going to get fixed.”

At this point, the Trump-Pence administration is considering the following candidates for U.S. Trade Representative (USTR): former SBA official Jovita Carranza, former Nucor CEO Dan DiMicco and former deputy USTR Robert Lighthizer. Additionally, attorney Jason Greenblatt will be the new special representative for international negotiations, providing an assist to the USTR; and Peter Navarro will be the new director of trade and industrial policy.

Update from January 5, 2017: Former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer has been chosen as the new U.S. Trade Representative. Ambassador Lighthizer worked in the Reagan administration, and has practiced international trade law for about thirty years. 

 

UPDATES ON TRADE AGREEMENTS: EGA, TISA, TTIP AND FISHERIES SUBSIDIES

Negotiations for the Environmental Goods Agreement (EGA) unexpectedly stalled out in December, and remain in limbo, pending input from the Trump administration. China backed away from the deal, presumably realizing that they would not be receiving as favorable an outcome now that the U.S. Presidency is changing hands. The EGA seeks to lower tariffs on 54 products and services related to green energy production, including wind turbines and water treatment filters.

 

Trade in Services Agreement (TISA) negotiations are on hold until the first quarter of 2017. At that time, trade ministers will meet in Geneva to begin reevaluating the trade agreement, with specific attention to the services portion of TISA, and whether the U.S. plans to remain a TISA participant.

There are eight TPP countries that are also involved in TISA, and they’ve negotiated TISA with the assumption of U.S. TPP ratification. Now that it appears that the U.S. will withdraw from the TPP, that decision will have a ripple effect on TISA negotiations.

 

Fisheries Subsidies Agreement negotiations between 13 countries are set to begin in the first quarter of 2017, and will substantially continue at the Buenos Aires Ministerial Conference in late 2017. At issue are potential changes in the various countries’ fisheries subsidies, as they affect overfishing and IUU fishing (illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing). The deal is likely to be opposed and/or exploited by lesser-developed countries, and by major fisheries participants (Japan, China, India), who don’t actually want to limit their current fisheries practices.

 

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations are on hold until late 2017, with some participants fearing that the deal might be dead. The primary sticking point continues to be opposition to TTIP’s Investment Court System (ICS), and its questionable consistency with EU law. Of course, U.S. political activists are equally concerned over the sovereignty giveaway that goes with acceptance of a non-U.S. judicial system.

 

U.S. – EU RELATIONS ON THE ROCKS

A variety of circumstances are combining to strike dread in the hearts of EU leaders, as they contemplate a Donald Trump presidency and its effect on trade deals that are in the negotiation stages. Specifically:

  • Trump has expressed an intent to withdraw from the Paris Agreement climate change accord.

  • Trump has expressed a preference for dealing with trade bilaterally — between the U.S. and individual countries — rather than dealing with blocs of countries, such as the EU.

  • Trump supported the United Kingdom’s exit from the European Union.

In addition to those catalysts that make U.S. participation in trade agreements less of a slam-dunk, three EU nations are holding elections in 2017 — the Netherlands, France and Germany — thereby postponing progress on current trade negotiations.  As in the U.S., the European citizenry are disinclined to vote for candidates who support trade deals. 

 

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Crista Huff is a stock market expert and a conservative political activist. She works with End Global Governance to defeat the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. She is also Chief Analyst at Cabot Undervalued Stocks Advisor. Send questions and comments to research@goodfellowllc.com.

 

 

 

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