by Crista Huff, President at Goodfellow LLC, Chief Analyst at Smart Investing in Turbulent Times
If you only read one paragraph herein, this is the one you should focus on:
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement is not about “free trade”. It’s about the U.S. giving up sovereignty (autonomy; self-governance) to a global governing body called the Trans-Pacific Partnership Commission, and to a global court system that challenges many decisions made by the U.S. Congress and our states’ legislatures.
1. WHAT IS THE TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP (TPP) TRADE AGREEMENT?
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a 5,544-page trade agreement between 12 countries: U.S.A., Mexico, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Peru, and Chile. The U.S. already has trade agreements with six of these countries.
The TPP is not really about “free trade”. If it were, then you’d see more of a party-line split between Democrats and Republicans. Instead, we’re seeing Democrats, Tea Party Republicans, and various pro-U.S., pro-limited government Congresspeople lining up against President Obama’s administration, his Congressional allies, Establishment Republicans, and multi-national corporations.
By voting “yes” on the TPP, Congress gives away U.S. sovereignty — to the new Trans-Pacific Partnership Commission, and to a global tribunal — in myriad areas of American life, including our court systems, our labor pools, our food & product safety standards, our laws, the environment, and literally hundreds of areas of U.S. business and daily life that are detailed within the trade agreement.
The TPP is a conduit for global governance, under which the U.S. will no longer be a sovereign nation. Under the TPP, the U.S. will be a large land mass, subject to global governance, with a Congress that is powerless to stop anything decided by the new Trans-Pacific Partnership Commission, and global courts. Mark W. Hendrickson, an economist at The Center for Vision & Values at Grove City College, says “we don’t need an international bureaucracy that will trump Congress’ constitutional prerogatives, compromise American sovereignty and subvert republican government. We need globalization, not globalism.” (source: TribLive, 03-26-16)
U.S. labor unions oppose the TPP because trade agreements cause American job loss.
Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) concurs, “The predictions for these trade agreements have fallen massively short…” (I highly recommended that readers scroll down to section 24 and watch Sen. Sessions’ 15-minute speech on the TPP.)
(Source: Inside U.S. Trade, 03-31-16)
4. SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH THE TPP: SOVEREIGNTY, “LIVING AGREEMENT”, DOCKING AGREEMENT, and CHINA
The TPP requires each participating country to give up a large degree of sovereignty, not unlike what took place when European countries joined the European Union. Listen to Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) make that exact comparison in this Breitbart interview from March 24, 2016. (audio at page’s bottom; begin at the 8:11 minute mark)
It becomes apparent that this trade agreement was written by and for people who have more of a globalist, “one world order” agenda. I cannot fathom how any U.S. patriot would ever vote “YES” on the TPP.
The TPP is a “living agreement”. It’s content can and will be altered by global courts and a global commission, forever. The U.S. does not have the legal power to say “no” to any decision made by those entities.
On page 48 of the Congressional Research Service’s report, The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Negotiations and Issues for Congress, dated March 20, 2015, under the subheading A “Living Agreement”, it reads, “The TPP has been envisaged as a ‘living agreement,’ one that is both open to new members willing to sign up to its commitments and open to addressing new issues as they evolve.” Then on page 54, it reiterates, “…this ‘living agreement’ has been and may continue to be expanded in terms of its membership and its trade and investment disciplines.”
The TPP is a “docking” agreement. Additional countries may dock onto (i.e. “join”) the TPP, after it’s ratified, without Congress’ consent. Sen. Ted Cruz specifically voted against requiring Congress’ consent! Only a “consensus” vote of member countries is needed, for a country to join the TPP. The U.S. vote carries the same exact weight as Brunei’s vote! The word consensus is not the same word as unanimous — it implies a vague majority percentage, in which the U.S. could represent a minority vote. (source: TPP Chapter 27.3.2)
China has been encouraged to join the TPP, most notably by Hillary Clinton. John Kerry welcomed both Communist China and Russia to join the TPP. Docking countries could include enemies of the U.S.; even countries with which we are at war. Imagine being at war with a country, while also being required to allow their companies and countrymen to set up shop in the United States, and compete for Department of Defense contracts!
Eight former secretaries of defense wrote to Congress in late April, urging them to pass the TPP, using the worn out “the TPP will contain China” adage. News flash: China does not play by anybody’s rules, and China already OWNS the Asian economy.
China established the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) in 2014. The AIIB is the world’s largest bank, including over $1 trillion in assets from 57 member countries. China also controls $11 trillion in private banking assets, through four Chinese banks that rank in the top ten of the world’s largest private banks.
Do you understand that China has already written the rules of international trade, and 56 countries abide by those rules, through membership in the AIIB, and through their willingness to deal with Chinese currency manipulation?
5. SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH THE TPP: INVESTOR STATE DISPUTE SETTLEMENT (ISDS)
The Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) is a trade agreement provision whereby foreign companies, and foreign countries — via state-owned enterprises (SOE’s) — can sue the U.S. in global court, bypassing the U.S. justice system. There are no provisions for appealing the court’s decisions.
After having been burned by ISDS provisions within trade agreements, some countries seek to extricate themselves from the jurisdiction of a global court. As they proceed with the formal TPP ratification processes in 2016, the Australian and New Zealand governments plan to opt-out of the ISDS provision within the TPP (permitted under Article 29.5), as it pertains to tobacco lawsuits.
Both France and Germany sought to reopen the completed negotiations of the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), in order to amend their obligation to its ISDS provisions.
ISDS currently exists within other trade agreements. A large percentage of ISDS lawsuits aim for the forced removal of local environmental protections, so that foreign companies can more freely conduct business as they wish. Global courts have forced countries to pay billions of dollars in damages, and to overturn local environmental laws.
Opposition to ISDS is one of the key reasons that the Seattle City Council passed a resolution in 2015, unanimously opposing the TPP. Stop here and pause, please: In a state where 40% of jobs are tied to international trade, the city council of its biggest city found the TPP so egregious that they unanimously and publicly denounced it!
Oftentimes, ISDS lawsuits aim to change decisions made within the U.S. Justice System, Congress, or the Executive Branch, overriding the will of U.S. policymakers and voters.
“ISDS” has become somewhat of a dirty word in international trade circles, so much so that under the also-pending Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the European Union and the U.S., ISDS has been rebranded as “Investor Court Systems (ICS)”. In promoting ICS, Cecelia Malmstrom, European Commissioner for Trade, stated, “there is a fundamental and widespread lack of trust by the public in the fairness and impartiality of the old ISDS model.” (European Commission blogpost, Sept. 2015)
Will the new packaging of ISDS fool people into thinking that ICS is a solution? Certainly not the German Magistrates Association, which in February 2016 condemned these international court systems as lacking a “legal basis” and not meeting “the international requirements for the independence of courts.”
Other types of challenges that have been taken to global court by trading partners include protests against U.S. visa fees, and an increase in Egypt’s minimum wages. Whether these fees and wages were fair or not is secondary to the bigger point that, in both cases, a global court was asked to rule against and nullify sovereign decisions.
6. SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH THE TPP: CURRENCY MANIPULATION, VAT TAXES AND SUBSIDIES
Proponents of the TPP praise tariff reductions as the primary benefit of the trade agreement. But tariff reductions in no way guarantee a fair playing field within international trade. Foreign countries regularly use currency manipulation, border-adjustable taxes, subsidies, and a host of other arbitrary financial mechanisms to influence trade imbalances.
The Economic Policy Institute issued a lengthy report on the economics of the TPP, on March 3, 2016, stating that the TPP, “lacks an absolutely key component to keep it from doing potential damage to the U.S. economy. The missing piece of this trade and investment deal is a set of restrictions and/or enforceable penalties against member countries that engage in currency manipulation.”
The TPP lacks provisions to address foreign currency manipulation. Yet without such provisions, the cost of doing business with many Asian countries can be prohibitive. Japan, China, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Singapore routinely devalue their currencies, making U.S. exports more expensive to their citizens, thereby decreasing both the quantity of U.S. products sold in their countries and the profit margins on those products. In addition, currency manipulation has a see-saw effect: when U.S. products become more expensive in Asian countries, Asian products become cheaper in the U.S., thereby encouraging U.S. consumers to ignore U.S. products on store shelves, and instead reach for the cheaper, often-lower-quality foreign product.
When U.S. products sit unsold on retail store shelves, producers sell fewer products, often at marked-down prices. And the ripple effect continues: when a company is making less profit than expected, it has to cut back on spending, lay off workers, and even close its doors. It’s no wonder that 55,000 U.S. manufacturing facilities have closed their doors since NAFTA took effect!
China most recently devalued its currency in August 2015 and January 2016. Currency devaluation gives China an unfair trade advantage over the U.S., making Chinese products cheaper in America, but American products more expensive in China.
“[T]he U.S. already has proof that the lack of currency manipulation language is a major failing in modern trade deals. The three-year-old U.S.-Korea trade agreement, known as KORUS, is the model that the TPP is built upon. While supporters said it would create upwards of 70,000 jobs, it instead has led to tens of thousands of lost American jobs and an 84-percent increase in this country’s trade deficit with Korea. In fact, the U.S. rung up its highest monthly trade deficit ever with Korea in January, reaching $3 billion.” — James Hoffa, Huff Post Business, 08-17-15
Here are some comments about currency manipulation from Rep. Dave Trott (R-MI) from Inside U.S. Trade, July 8, 2016:
“It’s critical that any deal contains safeguards against currency manipulation to protect Michigan businesses and America’s auto manufacturers,” Trott said. “While I’m continuing to review the TPP and hear the thoughts of my constituents about this important issue, I continue to have concerns that the agreement does not contain all the necessary protections to safeguard Michigan’s important manufacturing sector.”
Foreign governments can also use VAT taxes, BAT taxes, and subsidies as a way to increase their manufacturers’ trade profitability, while making it harder for the U.S. to compete within foreign markets. Border adjustable taxes (BATs) average 17% globally, yet the U.S. does not have a comparable tax, to level the playing field, as foreign products compete with U.S. products for American consumers’ dollars.
In February 2016, Japan proposed increasing its pork subsidies, causing consternation from TPP-supporting Reps. Pat Tiberi (R-OH) and Brad Ashford (D-NE), and the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC). The TPP was then submitted to the Japanese Diet (its legislature) on March 8, 2016, to begin the ratification process, along with an adjoining bill, which will, among other things, increase pork subsidies. In response to American protests, Japanese Ambassador Kenichiro Sasae said that there is nothing in TPP that prohibits this type of program. (Source: Inside U.S. Trade, March 10, 2016)
Another way that a country can make foreign competition expensive is to increase visa fees for foreign workers. In March 2016, India formally requested consultations with the WTO over a December 2015 fee increase imposed by the U.S. for H-1B and L-1 visas. The fee increases were $4,000 and $4,500, respectively, more than doubling the previous fees. Prohibitively high visa fees can nullify or impair TPP benefits awarded to a country.
7. SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH THE TPP: HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES
The Obama administration “decided to allow Brunei to remain in the TPP even after the country announced that it would begin stoning to death gays and single mothers under new sharia-based laws.” (Source: Public Citizen)
The annual State Department Trafficking in Persons report was released on July 27, 2015. Cynics expected Malaysia to be raised from Tier 3 status — the most egregious of the potential rankings — to accommodate its image as an acceptable TPP partner country, and they were correct. Malaysia is now ranked on the Tier 2 Watch List. And after 13 years of being ranked in Tier 3, Cuba’s status was also raised in the 2015 report. Other Tier 3 countries include Belarus, Belize, Burundi, Comoros, Iran, North Korea, South Sudan, and Zimbabwe.
“After a July 8 Reuters report on plans to upgrade Malaysia, 160 members of the U.S. House of Representatives and 18 U.S. senators wrote to Secretary of State John Kerry, urging him to keep Malaysia on Tier 3. They said there was no justification for an upgrade and questioned whether the plan was motivated by a desire to keep the country in the TPP,” reported Reuters.
Malaysia dropped to Tier 3 status in 2014, due to its abysmal track record in the area of slavery and human trafficking. Since then, research has revealed additional evidence of Malaysian slavery in the area of electronics manufacturing, and discoveries of mass graves in migrant trafficking camps.
Here are the rankings, from highest to lowest:
8. SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH THE TPP: FOOD SAFETY
The Obama administration frequently claims that trade pacts cannot harm U.S. consumer and environmental policies. The TPP would lower food safety standards and public health protections in the U.S. and across the globe. Member countries will be required to accept foreign food products, if the quality of those food products is deemed good enough for the originating country’s citizens. “It will be a race to the bottom as governments are forced to sacrifice food safety regulations in order to appease multi-national corporations.” (source: Center for Food Safety, 02-03-16)
Need proof? Tucked away in the December omnibus bill, Congress agreed to remove country-of-origin labeling (C.O.O.L.) on beef & pork, based on pending sanctions from the World Trade Organization, with regard to complaints related to NAFTA. Therefore, even if the TPP does not specifically remove C.O.O.L., we now see that the TPP-sanctioned global court system (ISDS) can bully the U.S. into doing so.
What’s more, ISDS courts can lower standards on food safety, the environment, and workers. “Any U.S. food safety rules on GMOs, labeling, pesticides, animal drugs, or additives that TPP member nations believe violate the agreement could be subject to challenge as “illegal trade barriers.” ” (source: Center for Food Safety, 11-14-15)
Sounds inflammatory, right? Consider this: under the TPP, a U.S.-owned food company will be able to challenge domestic public health laws they do not like through their subsidiaries in TPP countries.
TPP member countries raise farmed fish with chemicals and antibiotics not allowed in the U.S. Under the TPP, will global courts force the U.S. to roll back its seafood safety standards?
Right now, Mexico is fighting the U.S. via the World Trade Organization, upset that U.S. requirements for dolphin-safe tuna labeling are more stringent in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) than in other oceans.
The U.S. has agreed to raise its standards for fishermen in other oceans, to the standard for which it holds fishermen in the ETP, but that’s not the outcome that Mexico desired. Mexico wanted its fishing requirements lowered to those of the other worldwide fishermen.
In retaliation, Mexico plans to increase tariffs on U.S. exports by $472 million, annually. Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo said that the new tariffs will “probably” be applied to the same product retaliation list used in an earlier dispute over cross-border trucking, including Christmas trees, onions, pears, cherries, fruit mixtures, potatoes, almonds, juice concentrates, certain red wines, mineral water, strawberries, peas, soy sauce, shampoo, dog and cat food, toilet paper and pencils.
“Mexico on Wednesday (March 23) brushed aside a new U.S. attempt to comply with World Trade Organization rulings faulting its dolphin-safe labeling requirements for tuna and said it would proceed with imposing retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports as soon as a WTO arbitrator rules on the appropriate amount for retaliation.” (source: Inside Trade, 03-23-16)
The two countries continued their fight at a meeting of the World Trade Organization Dispute Settlement Body on April 22, 2016.
9. SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH THE TPP: PATENT PROTECTION, JOBS, etc.
In a March 1st report published by the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) of the U.S. Congress, the committee reports: “Unfortunately, at this stage it seems the President has fallen short in the negotiations with regard to a number of significant elements. For example, the President has failed to achieve adequate intellectual property protections for innovative American pharmaceuticals. Such protections are foundational for U.S. trade and must be robust to give American businesses the confidence to sell their products abroad. The current deal also fails to protect proprietary data stored by financial services companies. It also inexplicably denies market access for certain U.S. goods.“
— U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, Inside U.S. Trade, 03-23-16
Anti-privacy rules — There are anti-privacy rules within the TPP which should concern all global citizens. TheStar.com reports, “the TPP features several anti-privacy measures that would restrict the ability of governments to establish safeguards over sensitive information such as financial and health data as well as information hosted by social media services.”
“The American Automobile Policy Council recently issued a report which stated that the TPP will threaten 90,000 automotive jobs because of its failure to include strong currency protections.” — Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), 02-02-16
In an automobile industry analysis by Peter Petri, a professor of international finance at Brandeis University, the WSJ writes that, ‘the TPP could boost imports by an extra $30.8 billion by 2025, compared with an exports gain of $7.8 billion.’” — Breitbart, 03-10-16
Ford Motor Company opposes the TPP, because of increased foreign competition in the U.S., and because the TPP does not adequately open foreign markets to U.S. goods.
And in January 2016, “Ford announced they were leaving the Japanese market; Japan being the key country in this agreement…because they say that Japan has non-tariff barriers that has limited their ability to sell cars in Japan,” commented Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL).
On February 2, 2016, Congressman Rick Nolan, and a bipartisan group of 23 Congresspeople, wrote a letter to President Obama, opposing the TPP on the grounds that it further harms the already-suffering iron ore mining and steel industries, and neglects to address currency manipulation.
What’s more, the letter repeatedly cites China benefitting from the TPP’s weak automobile rules of origin thresholds. Public Citizen wrote, “It would allow vehicles comprised mainly of Chinese and other non-TPP country parts and labor to gain duty free access.”
Athletic footwear — In April 2016, New Balance Athletic Shoe, Inc. came out against the TPP, in apparent retaliation to the Dept. of Defense (DOD), after an agreement soured between the two entities. While the main issue at hand is not New Balance’s participation in the TPP, the company and the DOD are conflicting in negotiations over whether the DOD will agree to “Buy American” in the area of military recruits’ athletic footwear. New Balance says that a DOD agreement to purchase American-made athletic footwear can increase its ability to expand its U.S. manufacturing facilities.
New Balance, and its supporters in Congress, seek to add athletic footwear to the Berry Amendment, which requires military uniforms and various items procured by the DOD to be 100% made in the U.S.A. (Inside U.S. Trade — 04-26-16; and also Inside U.S. Trade — 04-26-16)
On April 27, 2016, Rep. Niki Tsongas (D-MA) put forth standalone legislation to force the Pentagon to buy U.S.-made shoes for recruits. The legislation was included in the House mark-up of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Similar legislation from previous years has failed to become law.
“Buy America” ban — “TPP would ban the application of Buy America procurement preferences with respect to all firms operating in TPP countries. Instead of reinvesting our tax dollars at home to build a strong national infrastructure and create economic growth and jobs at home, TPP would require us to give firms from the TPP nations, including Chinese state-owned-enterprise firms operating in Vietnam, equal access to U.S. government contracts.” (Source: Public Citizen)
Climate Change Agenda — The TPP rolls back environmental standards in the U.S. In addition, the ISDS portion of the TPP invites foreign corporations to take U.S. states & municipalities to global court, in order to challenge existing U.S. environmental regulations that interfere with the foreign corporation’s profitability goals.
Copyright infringers — Under the TPP, ISP’s will be required to police, and turn over the names of, copyright infringers. This TPP provision creates costly and onerous responsibilities to the ISP’s.
Dairy industry — The National Milk Producers Federation’s (NMPF) CEO Jim Mulhern said that the TPP “achieves less than we wanted in terms of throwing open new markets in Japan and Canada.” In fact, the NMPF determined that the net effect of the TPP on the U.S. dairy industry would be “neutral to slightly positive”, and is in fact counting on additional Asian countries (read: China) to join the TPP in the future, so as to potentially benefit the U.S. dairy industry. (03-10-16)
And in an April 21, 2016 press release, the NMPF reiterated that it wants to maximize access to the Canadian dairy market via the TPP. A missive to that effect, signed by 47 House members, was delivered to U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack.
Ironically, also on April 21, 2016, the C.D. Howe Institute published “Better in than Out? Canada and the Trans-Pacific Partnership”, in which it identifies the Canadian dairy industry is one of the biggest losers in a long list of Canadian industries that are expected to be harmed by the TPP.
Data localization — The financial services sector has been excluded from the TPP’s e-commerce chapter, which contains a ban on data localization requirements. As a result, financial companies could be required to store data on servers within TPP partner countries, a move which the companies say puts data security at risk. (Read more in “Pols Call For New TPP Data Rules For Banking Sector” — Law 360, 01-12-16)
The Obama administration is working to fix this issue in future trade agreements, such as TiSA; and with side letters with the four TPP partner countries which are not participating in TiSA. As of July 8, 2016, the House Ways & Means Committee has not endorsed the TPP, while it awaits resolution to both the data localization issue, and the conflict between the biologic patent exclusivity period allowed by U.S. law, vs. that offered within the TPP.
Immigration — According to CBC News in Canada, Ryan Rosenberg, a Vancouver immigration lawyer, “said he was surprised by the number of skilled occupations included in the agreement that won’t require employers to perform labour market assessments to prove no Canadians are eligible for the jobs.” Source: Expect influx of foreign workers, professionals under TPP, experts say — CBC News (Canada), 11-29-15
Intellectual property — The Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) addressed the International Trade Commission in February 2016, with concerns that intellectual property rules governing biosimilar drugs (a.k.a. biologic medicines) are weaker in the TPP than they are in the U.S. (See TPP Article 18.51.) In 2010, Congress authorized 12 years of market exclusivity for U.S. pharmaceuticals, but the TPP provides only 5-8 years of patent protection. (Source: Inside U.S. Trade, 02-24-16) The weaker rules translate directly to loss of sales, and thus, job loss, throughout the industry.
Patent protection — New Zealand’s IT professionals are concerned that the TPP would force their country to establish patent protection on software, which has already been outlawed in their country, by an almost unanimous vote.
Pharmaceutical pricing/Biologics — The U.S. pharmaceutical industry is not pleased at the short 5-8 year exclusivity period in the TPP for new biologic drugs. Other countries, such as Peru — which has the highest pharmaceutical drug costs of any TPP member nation — are very pleased with the exclusivity period. “Peru’s outgoing trade minister … signaled that her country is not interested in taking on any new commitments on the exclusivity period for biologic drugs.” (Inside U.S. Trade, 04-14-16)
Peru currently has no period of exclusivity on biologics, so adopting the TPP rules adds a financial burden onto its nation. The trade minister essentially said that Peru got a great deal re: pharmaceutical pricing in the TPP, vs. the longer time frame desired by the U.S., and they’re not going to renegotiate it.
Peru actually has ten years to comply with the TPP’s biologics exclusivity option, and the Peruvian trade minister has stated that Peru plans to utilize that full window of time.
Doctors Without Borders is concerned about the TPP’s long-term affect on partner countries’ “reduced ability to access affordable generic medicines.” These countries “would be forced to implement a range of new provisions that will lengthen, strengthen and expand patent and regulatory monopolies for medicines.” (07-23-15)
Steel industry — The U.S. steel industry is facing a serious crisis from foreign competition, overcapacity, illegal dumping, and currency manipulation; from China, Japan, India, Turkey, and Korea. U.S. steel production fell 27% in 2015, from 2014 levels! It should be obvious to readers that such a dramatic reduction in steel output leads directly to job layoffs and bankruptcies.
Not surprisingly, in late April, 700 members of the United Steelworkers Union (USW) urged Congress to oppose the TPP.
Tobacco carveout — Inside U.S. Trade reported on March 31, 2016, “the administration would be unlikely to do anything to mitigate the carveout tobacco control measures from the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) in TPP.”
The tobacco carveout pleases health-conscious voters, but displeases the tobacco industry and its representatives in Washington D.C. “On tobacco, multiple sources said this week that the administration is now privately indicating that it is willing to accept the fact that some Republican lawmakers who supported fast track will oppose the TPP due to the carveout.”
10. PROTECTIONISM: A RED HERRING
11. WHY DID PM STEPHEN HARPER THROW CANADA UNDER THE BUS?
Many global factions vehemently opposed the TPP, including the auto, poultry, timber, and dairy industries in Canada. It was widely believed that parliamentary elections in Canada, on October 19, 2015, would be a hurdle to the pre-election signing of the trade agreement. After all, PM Stephen Harper was running for reelection. He would not have wanted the blood on his hands, going into election season.
Thus, the TPP countries’ negotiators continually failed to agree on the terms of the trade agreement… until the early October 2015 meeting of trade ministers in Atlanta, GA. Surprisingly, all the countries simultaneously compromised on their negotiating objectives, and signed the trade agreement!
No country’s acquiescence was more shocking to me than Canada’s. I couldn’t figure out why PM Harper would throw Canada under the bus, right before election day! Within days, he went on television, trying to appease voters and industry by promising to give $5.3 billion to Canada’s auto and dairy industries.
Harper promised $4.3 billion to dairy farmers. He also promised $1 billion to auto & parts companies over the next ten years. That sounds like a lot of money, but that’s only $100 million per year. It costs $2 billion just to build an assembly plant!
The result: Harper’s opponent, Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau, won the election by a landslide. American legislators should take note: Voting “yes” on the TPP in Congress is not going to go over well with voters.
I was left to ponder why a head-of-state would throw away his job, status, and power like that. And then I realized what had likely taken place. I think that various powers-that-be approached Harper, asking him to fall on his sword, and tell his trade negotiator to sign the TPP in Atlanta. In exchange, they might have promised Harper a prominent position in the new Trans-Pacific Partnership Commission.
More recently, the TPP’s potential harm to the Canadian auto and dairy industries was reiterated in an April 2016 report issued by the C.D. Howe Institute, “Better in than Out? Canada and the Trans-Pacific Partnership”. The report also projects the TPP to “negatively impact industrial sectors, including textiles and apparel, the chemicals-plastics-rubber complex, and metal products.”
12. WHO ARE THE U.S. TRADE NEGOTIATORS?
13. WHAT IS FAST TRACK TRADE PROMOTION AUTHORITY (TPA)?
In the summer of 2015, the U.S. House and Senate voted “yes” on Fast Track Trade Promotion Authority (TPA). TPA allows the U.S. to negotiate and pass trade bills quickly, bypassing normal Congressional review, amendment & voting procedures. Under TPA, Congress is not allowed to amend a trade agreement; not a single sentence within the 5,544-page Trans-Pacific Partnership. Ultimately, the passage of the TPA bill means that when the TPP arrives in the House of Representatives, there will be no amendments, no filibuster, very limited debate, and a quick, simple majority up-or-down vote.
TPA affects all trade agreements that the U.S. will negotiate for the next six years.
14. HOW DID TPA PASS? WHO WOULD GIVE PRESIDENT OBAMA THAT MUCH POWER TO BYPASS CONGRESS???
There’s so much to be said on this topic. Through bribes, betrayals, coercion, secrecy, and naivete, TPA passed the U.S. House of Representatives in June 2015 by a one vote margin.
I visited Congressional offices in Washington D.C. nine times, during the first half of 2015, in order to implore Congresspeople to vote “NO” on Fast Track trade promotion authority (TPA), and the TPP. The vast majority of staffers who I met with knew only small pieces of information about TPA and/or TPP.
The good news is, now that the media has begun talking about the TPP, and Presidential candidates are publicly opposing it, Congresspeople will be more likely to vote “NO” on the TPP vote in 2016.
Here’s a list of Congresspeople who voted “YES” on Fast Track trade promotion authority (TPA) on June 16.
On Weds., June 24, the U.S. Senate also voted to approve Fast Track/TPA. The Senate also passed a bill renewing Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) and tariff preferences for developing countries.
On Monday, June 29th, President Obama signed the Fast Track bill into law.
Fast forward to 2016, and some of Fast Track’s authors and “YES” voters are singing a different tune.
15. FAST TRACK SHENANIGANS: ATTACK ON REP. KEN BUCK (R-CO)
On Tuesday evening, June 23, Reps. Mimi Walters and Elise Stefanik called a meeting of the freshmen class in Congress, for the purpose of removing Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO-04) as President of the class. This action was being taken in retaliation for Rep. Buck’s recent “NO” vote on Fast Track/TPA. The meeting took place Thursday morning, June 25, at 8:30 AM (ET).
Rep. Ken Buck survived the meeting, with his position as President of the class intact!
Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO-04) also experienced retaliation for his brave stance against Fast Track/TPA, in the form of withdrawal of support from various PAC contributors. In addition, a Colorado elected official told me that the D.C. Establishment sent out feelers to determine the viability of launching a primary challenger against Mr. Buck in 2016.
16. FAST TRACK SHENANIGANS: ATTACK ON REP. MARK MEADOWS (R-NC)
Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC-11) was stripped of his House Oversight and Government Reform subcommittee chairmanship — can’t miss the irony there, folks! — following his “NO” vote on a procedural motion, related to Fast Track/TPA. (Read more in this June 22nd WND article.)
On June 25, GOP “leadership” restored Rep. Meadows’ chairmanship. (Read more from Politico.)
17. FAST TRACK SHENANIGANS: ADDITIONAL RETALIATION TARGETS
In June 2015, Republican “leadership” removed Representatives Trent Franks (R-AZ), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), and Steve Pearce (R-NM) from their positions on the Whip Team. In addition, “leadership” apparently used subcommittee chairmanships — then belonging to Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX) and House Freedom Caucus chairman Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) — to bribe other Republican Congresspeople, in an effort to convince them to vote “NO” on Fast Track-related legislation. (Breitbart, 06-20-15)
18. FAST TRACK SHENANIGANS: REP. PAUL RYAN AND SEN. TED CRUZ
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) were instrumental in the passage of TPA. While there were many of the usual suspects going along with the President’s Fast Track plan, including most key Democrats in Congress, and former House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), the Fast Track bill could not have passed without Rep. Ryan’s and Sen. Cruz’s support and encouragement.
Rep. Ryan was the lead Congressman in promoting TPA. Sen. Cruz provided lots of support, and co-penned an editorial with Rep. Ryan in April 2015, encouraging Congress to pass the TPA bill.
On June 23rd, mere hours before the Senate Fast Track vote, Sen. Cruz announced his opposition to the Fast Track bill, on the premise that Sen. Mitch McConnell had lied to him.
Senator Ted Cruz is a brilliant man. There is absolutely no way that he was naive about TPA, TPP, the President’s agenda, or any of the motives of the other key players on this issue. It is my belief that Sen. Cruz realized that pressure was mounting from voters, against the TPP, and that he would not be elected President if he supported the TPP. So he had to make a quick turnaround on his stance on Fast Track — a turnaround which carefully took place far too late to kill the Fast Track vote.
Normally, I’m a forgiving person, but I draw the line with Sen. Cruz. To reiterate:
1. Sen. Cruz is an establishment insider, close with the Bush family, and very comfortable with global trade. “Between 1999 and 2003, Cruz was the director of the Office of Policy Planning at the Federal Trade Commission, an associate deputy attorney general at the United States Department of Justice, and domestic policy advisor to President George W. Bush on the 2000 George W. Bush presidential campaign.” (Source: Wikipedia.)(Hear more: Michael Savage DESTROYS and Exposes Ted Cruz – 3/10/16.
2. Sen. Cruz co-authored a pro-Fast Track op-ed with Rep. Paul Ryan, in April 2015.
3. In May 2015, “Cruz voted against an amendment to the Trade Deal that would require congress to be consulted if China (or other nations) were to join after the fact.” — The Conservative Treehouse, 11-30-15
- Senate Amendment 1251 “To require the approval of Congress before additional countries may join the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement”…
4. Sen. Cruz voted “NO” on an amendment to Fast Track Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) bill that would have firmly addressed foreign countries’ currency manipulation practices, in future trade agreements. The amendment was voted down in a close 51-48 vote.
Donald Trump commented, “To me, that amendment is more important than the deal itself. There’s no way this country can compete with those nations in the TPP because of the fact there’s no currency manipulation restriction.” — Breitbart, 04-01-16
5. On May 22, 2015, Sen. Cruz released a statement promoting TPA and its associated trade agreements, saying “By passing Trade Promotion Authority, we create a path for trade agreements to reduce government-created barriers to prosperity.”
6. Sen. Cruz had the power to kill the Fast Track bill, by influencing colleagues — including any of the 36 Congresspeople from Texas — in the months leading up to the Fast Track vote. Instead, he waited until the last possible moment to announce his opposition to Fast Track, not because of opposition to the TPP or any trade agreement, but because of his opposition to related legislation which would reauthorize the Export-Import Bank. The Fast Track bill only passed the House by one vote. To me, his last minute “change of heart” over Fast Track seemed like a politically expedient decision, made in light of the Tea Party’s growing outrage over TPA & TPP.
7. In the spring of 2015, I contacted four of Cruz’ Senate and campaign offices, to talk to key people about why he should be voting “no” on Fast Track. None of them returned my calls. After nine visits to Washington D.C. in 2015, to fight Fast Track, I found it highly unusual not to be able to speak with a Senator’s staffers. My takeaway was that his people were told to stonewall the Fast Track opponents.
8. Sen. Cruz and his supporters have portrayed his original pro-Fast Track position as naivete; and that he was fooled by his colleagues. I say baloney! Sen. Cruz is one of the smartest, most knowledgeable elected officials in D.C.
9. Sen. Cruz did not take an anti-TPP stance until the Nov. 10th Presidential debate, once it became clear that almost every serious contender in the debate had also spoken out against the TPP. Why did it take him so long to speak out against the TPP?
10. Club for Growth, a pro-trade organization, was Cruz’ biggest campaign contributor in the years 2011-2014, donating $705,657 — more than twice the amount of the next biggest contributor. This alarms me. Why would Club for Growth bet so heavily on a candidate who opposes the TPP? (Source: OpenSecrets.org)
11. Sen. Cruz’ wife, Heidi Cruz, a managing director at Goldman Sachs, has lots of career experience with pro-trade factions.
I am left to believe that Sen. Cruz fully supports the TPP, and what we witnessed was his political maneuvering, as he hid his position so as to solidify his chance to become the next President of the United States.
19. WHAT IS THE TRADE IN SERVICES AGREEMENT (TiSA)?
The following people publicly insisted that the TPP does not affect U.S. immigration law: U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman, Rep. Paul Ryan, and the Senate Finance Committee. But they had their fingers crossed behind their backs. Surprise!
There’s an additional agreement that’s being secretly negotiated, which will be grandfathered into the Fast Track/TPA bill. It’s called the Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA). And it’s all about mandating work visas, which allow approximately 50 countries to each send large numbers of skilled and unskilled workers to work in America, including Turkey and Pakistan!
In addition, those foreign workers will not be subject to U.S. minimum wage laws, nor to the normal economic “needs testing” for visa applicants.
TiSA negotiatiors are currently working under a goal of completing negotiations in 2016. TiSA chapters are near completion on the topics of telecommunications, financial services, domestic regulation and transparency, e-commerce, and the movement of natural persons. (Source: Inside U.S. Trade, 01-28-16)
There’s currently some pushback from Japan and South Korea, who do not like the idea of subjecting their national postal carriers to new rules governing competitive delivery services — rules which favor private companies, and disfavor government postal agencies and workers’ unions.
Within TiSA, there’s also “a U.S. proposal for a so-called ‘MFN-forward’ [most-favored nation] clause that would require TISA participants to extend any future market access concessions made in bilateral and regional trade deals to TISA partners as well, and a TISA dispute settlement mechanism.” To clarify, if there are 50 TiSA countries, all future market access concessions, in every trade agreement that they sign, will therefore apply to all 50 TiSA countries. (Source: “TISA Officials See Hurdles Ahead In Push To Conclude Deal This Year“, Inside U.S. Trade, 01-29-16)
20. WHERE DO POTUS CANDIDATES STAND ON THE TPP?
(alphabetically)
Hillary Clinton was a proponent of the TPP until she publicly changed her stance in 2015. Read more here: 45 times Secretary Clinton pushed the trade bill she now opposes — CNN, June 2015
Sen. Ted Cruz voted against Fast Track trade promotion authority, and he intends to vote against the TPP. (Please read much more in section 16, above: “FAST TRACK SHENANIGANS: REP. PAUL RYAN AND SEN. TED CRUZ”.)
Ohio Gov. John Kasich supports the TPP.
Sen. Marco Rubio voted for Fast Track trade promotion authority, and he intends to vote for the TPP. He wrote, “We must … conclude and pass TPP …” (Source: Wall Street Journal, 04-29-15)
Sen. Bernie Sanders opposes the TPP. In a March 11, 2016 tweet, Sen. Sanders wrote, “If elected, I won’t send the TPP to Congress and will continue to fight efforts to pass it. I urge @HillaryClinton to join me.”
Donald Trump opposes the TPP, most often citing trade deals leading to U.S. job loss, currency manipulation, and China’s current & future involvement (e.g. through the docking agreement facet of the TPP, and through the TPP’s weak automobile rules of origin thresholds).
21. WHICH MEMBERS OF CONGRESS OPPOSE THE TPP?
(this section is a new work in progress)
Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY27) — op-ed 02-06-16
Frank Guinta (R-NH), Rep. French Hill (R-AR), and Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA) want to include financial services in the ban on data localization requirements within the TPP.
House Ways & Means Committee Ranking Member Rep. Sander Levin (D-MI) — “Levin Opposes TPP ‘As Negotiated,’ Citing Four Key Shortcomings”, Inside U.S. Trade 02-19-16. Key areas of opposition: worker rights in Mexico, Vietnam and Malaysia; automotive rules of origin; currency manipulation; and investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS).
22. WHEN WILL CONGRESS VOTE TO RATIFY THE TPP?
The TPP was ceremoniously signed by world leaders on February 4, 2016.
It is well-understood, among TPP partner countries, that the TPP will not be renegotiated to fix problems within it. This sentiment was emphasized in 2016 by Australia, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Chile, Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Koichi Hagiuda, Mexican Economy Secretary Ildefonso Guajardo, New Zealand Prime Minister John Key, Peruvian Minister for Foreign Trade and Tourism Magali Silva, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew.
Next step: The TPP must be ratified by all 12 nations. Vietnam is expected to take 18 months to two years, from the October 2015 signing, to ratify the TPP, while Japan already submitted the TPP to its legislature for ratification on March 8, 2016.
In the U.S., the President must first submit an administration-wide implementation and enforcement plan for the TPP to Congress. The office of the U.S. Trade Representative is actively working on the implementation and enforcement plan, during the month of April 2016.
Then after 30 days, he may sign implementing legislation for the TPP. President Obama stated, at a National Governors Association meeting on February 22, 2016, “We’re going to … enter this agreement, present it formally with some sort of implementation documents to Congress at some point this year and my hope is that we can get votes.”
Congress will then have 90 legislative days in which to vote on ratifying the TPP. (That’s legislative days, not calendar days.) The House of Representatives has only 54 legislative days this year, between June 1 and December 31. Even if President Obama signs implementing legislation on June 1, the House of Representatives can postpone the TPP vote until 2017, when an anti-TPP President might be in office.
The legislative process for the TPP vote is prescribed by Fast-Track Trade Promotion Authority (TPA) legislation, which passed in 2015.
You might ask, “If the President wants Congress to vote on the TPP in 2016, why doesn’t he submit the implementing legislation today?”
Here’s a likely answer: the pro-TPP economic studies from the World Bank, and from the Peterson Institute, showed dismal U.S. economic results. The pro-TPP faction cannot effectively use those studies to bolster their case, when selling Congress on the TPP.
However, the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC) is expected to release another pro-TPP study on May 18, 2016. Perhaps this new study, by hook or by crook, will project U.S. economic benefits from the TPP, thereby giving the pro-TPP people some assistance when presenting their case to Congress.
And here’s a cynical, yet also-probable answer: President Obama and Senator McConnell know that if they force a vote on the TPP before the November 2016 elections, many of the folks who vote “YES” will anger their constituents and lose their elections. Sen. McConnell has publicly referred to the re-election risk for industrial state Senators if they vote “YES” on the TPP, prior to the Nov. 2016 elections (Inside U.S. Trade, Dec. 18, 2015). That’s why the vote is more likely to take place after the November general elections, in a lame-duck session.
The post-election Congressional schedule would most likely include one week between the general election and the Thanksgiving recess, and three weeks between the Thanksgiving recess and the Dec. 16 adjournment date.
23. ACTIVIST CENTER
Take action: To ensure Congressional opposition to the TPP, please call*, email, visit, and tweet all Congresspeople. Tell them to vote “NO” on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement.
* U.S. Capitol switchboard — (202) 224-
Congresspeople pay attention when influential business people contact them regarding the TPP. Encourage your business contacts to pursue this issue with their local Congressperson.
Take additional action: Here’s a link to the list of Congresspeople who voted “YES” on Fast Track trade promotion authority (TPA) in June 2015. Call them. Ask them to vote “NO” on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement.
It’s slightly more helpful to call Republicans, than it is to call Democrats. The TPP already has significant Democrat opposition. The few Democrat holdouts have probably dug in their heels. On the contrary, Republican sentiment against the TPP is growing. We can reasonably expect some Republican House members, who previously voted “YES” on Fast Track, to now vote “NO” on the TPP.
There is no point in badgering your U.S. Senators to oppose the TPP. There are not enough anti-TPP Senators to win this vote. However, if you can convince a U.S. Senator to use his/her influence with Congresspeople, that is a task worth accomplishing.
24. RELATED MEDIA & SOURCES
New Paper Finds Unpredicted Rise in Trade Deficit Overwhelmed Predicted Impact of Reduced Trade Barriers in Korea-US Free Trade Agreement — Center for Economic and Policy Research, 04-21-16
“Better in than Out? Canada and the Trans-Pacific Partnership” — C.D. Howe Institute, 04-21-16
“CONGRESS IS STARTING TO UNDERSTAND THAT FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS DON’T WORK” — Huffington Post, 04-17-16
“Trump Camp: Ted Cruz Is ‘The Reason Why Obamatrade’ Passed” — Breitbart, 03-29-16
“Jeff Sessions: America’s Sovereignty at Stake in 2016 Presidential Election” — Breitbart, 03-24-16
“This GIF Shows How China Trumps the U.S. on Trade” — HowMuch.net, 03-23-16
“66 percent of Republicans oppose Pacific trade deal after they find out what’s in it, Pat Caddell-ALG poll shows” — Americans for Limited Government, 03-10-16
“Rubio, Cruz, Kasich All Backed Obamatrade, Pretend They Didn’t at Miami Debate” — Breitbart, 03-10-16
“Trans-Pacific Partnership, currency manipulation, trade, and jobs” — Economic Policy Institute, 03-03-16
“A Pacific Trade Deal Won’t Stop China’s Reckless Rise” — Kevin L. Kearns, President, U.S. Business & Industry Council
“KOREA FTA SPURRED MASSIVE TITANIUM IMPORTS” — Michael Stumo, CEO, Coalition for a Prosperous America, 02-17-16
“Exclusive — Donald Trump On Ford, Carrier, Shipping Jobs To Mexico: ‘I’m The Only One Who Understands What’s Going On’” — Breitbart, 02-12-16
“Ryan: Votes not there for trade agreement” — Journal Times, 02-09-16
“Association of German judges slams US-EU trade deal for its special corporate courts” — BoingBoing, 02-09-16
“Exclusive — ‘It’s A Terrible Deal,’ Donald Trump Says About Just-Signed Obamatrade“ — Breitbart, 02-05-16
“Phyllis Schlafly Issues Rubio Betrayal Memo” — Breitbart, 02-05-16
As TPP Signing Nears, Experts Warn U.S. Manufacturing Will Suffer — Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), floor speech, YouTube, 02-02-16
Exclusive — Jeff Sessions: ’Matter Of Supreme Importance’ GOP Nominee Can ‘Negotiate Better’ Trade Deals Than Obamatrade — Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), Breitbart, 01-25-16
Ford Shutting Japan, Indonesia Operations on Lack of Profit — BloombergBusiness, 01-25-16
The Polaris Project — a website for information about human trafficking.
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Facts and Figures for SOTU Prep — Public Citizen, January 2016
It’s Time to Meet the Cruz’s… — The Marshall Report, 12-04-15
Final TPP text under a magnifying glass — Lawyer’s Weekly, 11-12-15
SENATOR BERNIE SANDERS: THE TRANS-PACIFIC TRADE (TPP) AGREEMENT MUST BE DEFEATED
Big Sugar’s Fight to Keep U.S. Import Limits Delaying Trade Deal — August 2015
Stop the Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) — The John Birch Society, 08-24-15
America’s Final Independence Day — Crista Huff, July 2015
Has US desire for Asia trade deal trumped slavery with Malaysia’s ranking? — The Christian Science Monitor (07-13-15).
45 times Secretary Clinton pushed the trade bill she now opposes — CNN, June 2015
5 Ways the TPP Hurts U.S. Jobs and the Economy — Crista Huff, June 2015
CRITICAL ALERT: TOP FIVE CONCERNS WITH TRADE PROMOTION AUTHORITY, Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), 05-04-15
Why Multi-National Corporations Are Behind The Trans Pacific Partnership Trade Agreement — by Crista Huff, April 2015
“The Trans-Pacific Partnership clause everyone should oppose” — by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, The Washington Post, 02-25-15
“Germany and France want to reopen CETA to amend ISDS provision” — Canadians.org, 01-26-15
“From Public Citizen: Top 10 Most Pernicious Investor-State Dispute Settlement Lawsuits” — Naked Capitalism, October 2014
* * * * *
Crista Huff is a stock market expert and a conservative political activist. She is the Chief Analyst at Smart Investing in Turbulent Times; owner/operator of Goodfellow LLC, an outperforming stock market website; and she has worked with End Global Governance and economic groups to defeat Fast Track trade promotion authority and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement. Send questions and comments to research@goodfellowllc.com.
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Caught you on I Spy Radio Show… wow! Had no idea just how horrible the TPP is. Keep up the good work (even though I’m STILL baffled by your support for Cruz, despite his dishonesty on this).
Will listen to it again when they post the podcast
For anyone else’s FYI, it’s here —
http://ispyradio.com/why-trans-pacific-partnership-trade-deal-is-so-bad-for-america/
Ron, the POTUS race is complicated for me, because of both “R” candidates’ serious drawbacks. I don’t actually “support” either of them. I liked Rand Paul and Rick Perry. Must be the alliteration of their initials … I was an English major. 🙂
Thanks for listening to the show! Keep on fighting the good fight.