December 18th Market Commentary — Hold Your Horses

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(SPX 2039.37 in early trading)

I see the U.S. markets experiencing a tremendous rebound in the last 24 hours.  While it’s conceivable that stocks could fully rebound in the short-term, I have a strong sense that the markets need to bounce at their recent lows at least one more time before they recover.

Watch for a day where the S&P closes around 1973, or up to ten points below that.  (It’s quite common, when the market bounces twice, that the second leg of the bounce is a bit lower than the first.)

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My instinct here is driven by the “yahoo!” bullishness in oil stocks.  They fell too far.  They cannot recover without forming new bases.  They have to fall back.  And when they fall back, they will take the market averages with them.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com.

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Please send questions and comments to research@goodfellowllc.com.

Carry on.

 

Crista Huff
President
Goodfellow LLC

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